Ethereum · Valuation Model
ETH Security Mechanism
Stablecoin TVL secured on Ethereum vs. ETH market cap — and what the ratio implies about fair value. Model R² = 0.86 on data since 2020.
What this shows
As of March 2026, Ethereum held ~$164B in stablecoins — within 3% of an all-time high — while ETH's market cap sat at ~$239B, down 59% from peak. The TVL/Mcap ratio at 0.69 was at the 99th percentile of all historical readings.
Every time this ratio has approached 0.78–0.80, one of two things has happened: ETH price has recovered, or stablecoin growth has stalled. It has never sustainably broken above that ceiling.
Read the full analysis
Why fees stopped being the right signal after EIP-4844. The institutional shift in stablecoin composition. What the model's current Z-score of −1.14 implies for positioning.
Read on Substack ↗ View editorial with full chart →